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PRECIPITATION PATTERN CHANGE
OF SOUTH KOREA
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were adopted by the IPCC for its fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014.The pathways are used for climate modeling and research. They describe four possible climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come. The four RCPs, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5, are named after a possible range of radiative forcing values in the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial values (+2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W/m2, respectively).
The graph on the right represents global temperature increase projections according to RCPs.
Below pictures show how the precipitation pattern in Korea will change according to RCPs .
Prospect
Under current climate, the frequency of heavy precipitation is observed to be 3.1 days/year during 1980 – 2005(a).
Simulated under RCP 4.5, frequency of heavy precipitation will be 3.5 days/year during 2020 -2049(b) and 4.3 days/year during 2070 - 2099(C) .
Simulated under RCP 8.5, frequency of heavy precipitation will be 3.3 days/year during 2020 -2049(d) and 4.4 days/year during 2070 - 2099(f) .
Resource : 대표농도경로 (RCP)에 따른 21세기 말 우리나라 극한강수 전망, Atmosphere. Korean Meteorological Society, Vol. 22, No. 2 (2012) pp. 221-231
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